Predicting Premier League Match Outcomes Using Advanced ML Ensemble Models
Analyzing 10 seasons of Premier League data from 2014-2024, including ELO ratings, expected goals, and team form metrics.
Combining Random Forest, XGBoost, and Gradient Boosting models using majority voting for robust predictions.
Predicting home wins, away wins, and draws for every fixture in the 2024-2025 Premier League season.
1000 estimators with optimized depth
1000 estimators with learning rate 0.5
2000 estimators with tuned hyperparameters
| Pos | Team | Pts | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🏆 Tottenham | 78 | Champions League |
| 2 | Chelsea | 74 | Champions League |
| 3 | Arsenal | 70 | Champions League |
| 4 | Liverpool | 70 | Champions League |
| 5 | Manchester Utd | 66 | Europa League |
| 6 | Manchester City | 66 | Europa League |
| 7 | Newcastle Utd | 65 | Conference League |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 59 | |
| 9 | Crystal Palace | 48 | |
| 10 | Leicester City | 45 | |
| 11 | Fulham | 40 | |
| 12 | Everton | 34 | |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 34 | |
| 14 | Ipswich Town | 32 | |
| 15 | West Ham | 31 | |
| 16 | Southampton | 31 | |
| 17 | Brighton | 29 | |
| 18 | Wolves | 26 | Relegation |
| 19 | Brentford | 19 | Relegation |
| 20 | Bournemouth | 17 | Relegation |
Expected goals for away team
Expected goals against home team
ELO rating of the away team
ELO rating of the home team
Historical win rates of both teams
Recent match performance metrics